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    美國通脹升至31年來最高,別指望拜登能解決

    美國通脹升至31年來最高,別指望拜登能解決

    Nicole Goodkind 2021-11-28
    汽油、食品、暖氣和其他家庭必需品價格都在接近歷史新高。

    經濟學家預測,目前通貨膨脹率處于31年來最高水平,至少未來一年內仍將保持高位。

    這意味著普通美國人原本就因成本上升經受打擊的錢包將愈發痛苦。盡管勞動力緊缺,工資也在上漲,但過去一年中實際平均收入下降了1.6%。汽油、食品、暖氣和其他家庭必需品價格接近歷史新高。人們的儲蓄都在貶值。

    10月,通脹之風刮起(CPI同比上漲6.2%),對控制國會和白宮的民主黨人來說風力尤其猛烈,因為很多美國人不可避免地認為他們應為當前經濟困境負責。根據最近《華盛頓郵報》和美國廣播公司一項調查,盡管拜登總統提出了1.2萬億美元的基礎設施計劃,而且超萬億美元社會支出協議通過的可能性越來越大,美國人當中只有39%贊成他處理經濟的方式。

    對于進入2022年中期選舉季的民主黨人來說,民調結果是黑暗的現實:近一半美國人和政治獨立人士將通貨膨脹歸咎于拜登,而共和黨人敏銳抓住了這一信息。

    “看不到任何緩解的跡象。這是全國資金泛濫的直接結果,”上個月參議院少數黨領袖米奇·麥康奈爾(肯塔基州共和黨人)對記者表示。他指責拜登的基礎設施法案導致轉向通貨膨脹?!拔覀兏静粦摾^續進行一場大規模且不計后果的稅收和支出狂歡?!?/p>

    社交媒體推特(Twitter)上的共和黨人紛紛開始使用標簽“感恩節稅”,將感恩節昂貴大餐與拜登和其他民主黨人聯系起來。根據農場游說團的說法,今年假日餐費將增加14%。

    “由于拜登總統失敗的經濟政策,感恩節晚餐費用將創歷史新高。原本美國家庭應該過得更好。#感恩節稅,”共和黨眾議員丹·梅瑟(賓夕法尼亞州共和黨人)寫道。

    不過事實上,多數經濟學家(左翼和右翼)都認為拜登的政策與通脹上升關系不大。穆迪分析公司(Moody's Analytics)和惠譽評級公司(Fitch Ratings)的分析師表示,該法案對不斷上漲的價格并無影響,原因在于2022年之前相關資金不會開始流入經濟,而且法案推出時間長達十年加之收入增加,可抵消影響。

    白宮指出價格上漲的原因是新冠導致的供應鏈障礙,以及疫情中企業整合行為。最近,拜登政府發出信號稱可能會繼續攻擊,指責大公司在利潤上升的同時將價格上漲轉嫁給消費者。

    本月拜登敦促聯邦貿易委員會(Federal Trade Commission)進一步調查石油天然氣行業反競爭行為時,也傳達了同樣的觀點。他認為正是該行業反競爭行為導致汽油價格上漲。

    “過去幾周,批發市場汽油價格下降了約10%,”周二下午拜登在一場新聞發布會上表示。新聞發布會目標是解決油價上漲問題,并推動白宮在經濟方面的努力?!暗羌佑驼镜挠蛢r沒有任何變化。換言之,天然氣供應公司支付的費用更少,賺的錢更多,而且似乎并未向給加油站的消費者讓利?!?/p>

    然而,拜登在實際解決通脹現實問題方面幾乎毫無作為。昨天拜登宣布,將提名杰羅姆·鮑威爾連任美聯儲主席。

    如今負責政治獨立機構的鮑威爾可以提高短期利率以抵消物價上漲。新冠疫情期間還有特朗普執政時代,他降低利率并購買資產,將更多資金投入衰退的經濟。經濟學家認為,相關行動可能導致通脹,但鮑威爾稱計劃只是暫時,保持經濟穩健運行的重要性更高,輕微通脹不必過分擔心。

    拜登利用行政權力緩解了港口的供應鏈問題,他會見大型零售商首席執行官,要求迅速上架商品以滿足需求。他還宣布將從國家戰略石油儲備里劃撥石油,但對天然氣價格的影響可能微乎其微?!半m然沒法一夜之間解決高油價問題,”周二拜登表示,“但隨著時間推移,以后會發揮作用?!?/p>

    地緣政治專家表示,可以取消前總統特朗普對中國進口商品征收的關稅,但對全球關系的影響更大,超過對通脹的修正。

    總之,拜登控制不了美聯儲,也沒法強迫鮑威爾。至于通脹的選擇方面,他能做的就是一面堅定地對大公司指手畫腳,一面提醒美國人自己在經濟其他領域的成就。

    拜登表示:“即使考慮通貨膨脹,美國經濟規模也更大,美國人口袋里的錢也比疫情前多。美國是全世界唯一敢這么說的大國?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W)

    譯者:馮豐

    審校:夏林

    經濟學家預測,目前通貨膨脹率處于31年來最高水平,至少未來一年內仍將保持高位。

    這意味著普通美國人原本就因成本上升經受打擊的錢包將愈發痛苦。盡管勞動力緊缺,工資也在上漲,但過去一年中實際平均收入下降了1.6%。汽油、食品、暖氣和其他家庭必需品價格接近歷史新高。人們的儲蓄都在貶值。

    10月,通脹之風刮起(CPI同比上漲6.2%),對控制國會和白宮的民主黨人來說風力尤其猛烈,因為很多美國人不可避免地認為他們應為當前經濟困境負責。根據最近《華盛頓郵報》和美國廣播公司一項調查,盡管拜登總統提出了1.2萬億美元的基礎設施計劃,而且超萬億美元社會支出協議通過的可能性越來越大,美國人當中只有39%贊成他處理經濟的方式。

    對于進入2022年中期選舉季的民主黨人來說,民調結果是黑暗的現實:近一半美國人和政治獨立人士將通貨膨脹歸咎于拜登,而共和黨人敏銳抓住了這一信息。

    “看不到任何緩解的跡象。這是全國資金泛濫的直接結果,”上個月參議院少數黨領袖米奇·麥康奈爾(肯塔基州共和黨人)對記者表示。他指責拜登的基礎設施法案導致轉向通貨膨脹?!拔覀兏静粦摾^續進行一場大規模且不計后果的稅收和支出狂歡?!?/p>

    社交媒體推特(Twitter)上的共和黨人紛紛開始使用標簽“感恩節稅”,將感恩節昂貴大餐與拜登和其他民主黨人聯系起來。根據農場游說團的說法,今年假日餐費將增加14%。

    “由于拜登總統失敗的經濟政策,感恩節晚餐費用將創歷史新高。原本美國家庭應該過得更好。#感恩節稅,”共和黨眾議員丹·梅瑟(賓夕法尼亞州共和黨人)寫道。

    不過事實上,多數經濟學家(左翼和右翼)都認為拜登的政策與通脹上升關系不大。穆迪分析公司(Moody's Analytics)和惠譽評級公司(Fitch Ratings)的分析師表示,該法案對不斷上漲的價格并無影響,原因在于2022年之前相關資金不會開始流入經濟,而且法案推出時間長達十年加之收入增加,可抵消影響。

    白宮指出價格上漲的原因是新冠導致的供應鏈障礙,以及疫情中企業整合行為。最近,拜登政府發出信號稱可能會繼續攻擊,指責大公司在利潤上升的同時將價格上漲轉嫁給消費者。

    本月拜登敦促聯邦貿易委員會(Federal Trade Commission)進一步調查石油天然氣行業反競爭行為時,也傳達了同樣的觀點。他認為正是該行業反競爭行為導致汽油價格上漲。

    “過去幾周,批發市場汽油價格下降了約10%,”周二下午拜登在一場新聞發布會上表示。新聞發布會目標是解決油價上漲問題,并推動白宮在經濟方面的努力?!暗羌佑驼镜挠蛢r沒有任何變化。換言之,天然氣供應公司支付的費用更少,賺的錢更多,而且似乎并未向給加油站的消費者讓利?!?/p>

    然而,拜登在實際解決通脹現實問題方面幾乎毫無作為。昨天拜登宣布,將提名杰羅姆·鮑威爾連任美聯儲主席。

    如今負責政治獨立機構的鮑威爾可以提高短期利率以抵消物價上漲。新冠疫情期間還有特朗普執政時代,他降低利率并購買資產,將更多資金投入衰退的經濟。經濟學家認為,相關行動可能導致通脹,但鮑威爾稱計劃只是暫時,保持經濟穩健運行的重要性更高,輕微通脹不必過分擔心。

    拜登利用行政權力緩解了港口的供應鏈問題,他會見大型零售商首席執行官,要求迅速上架商品以滿足需求。他還宣布將從國家戰略石油儲備里劃撥石油,但對天然氣價格的影響可能微乎其微?!半m然沒法一夜之間解決高油價問題,”周二拜登表示,“但隨著時間推移,以后會發揮作用?!?/p>

    地緣政治專家表示,可以取消前總統特朗普對中國進口商品征收的關稅,但對全球關系的影響更大,超過對通脹的修正。

    總之,拜登控制不了美聯儲,也沒法強迫鮑威爾。至于通脹的選擇方面,他能做的就是一面堅定地對大公司指手畫腳,一面提醒美國人自己在經濟其他領域的成就。

    拜登表示:“即使考慮通貨膨脹,美國經濟規模也更大,美國人口袋里的錢也比疫情前多。美國是全世界唯一敢這么說的大國?!保ㄘ敻恢形木W)

    譯者:馮豐

    審校:夏林

    Economists predict that inflation, now at a 31-year high, and will remain elevated for at least another year.

    That means more pain in the pocketbook for average Americans, who've already taken a financial hit due to rising costs. Although labor is scarce and wages are rising, real average earnings have declined 1.6% over the past year. Prices for gas, food, heating, and other household essentials are nearing record highs. And any savings people have are declining in value.

    These inflationary winds—blowing at a rate of 6.2% year-over-year in October — are particularly blustery for Democrats, who control Congress and The White House, and are inevitably blamed by many Americans for the current economic distress. Only 39% of Americans approve of President Joe Biden’s handling of the economy, according to a recent Washington Post/ABC survey—that’s despite his $1.2 trillion infrastructure package and the increasingly likely passage of his trillion-plus dollar social spending deal.

    The poll results signal a dark reality for Democrats as they enter the 2022 midterm election season: Nearly half of Americans overall and political independents blame Biden for inflation, and Republicans are grabbing onto that message.

    "There's no relief in sight. It's a direct result of flooding the country with money," Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), told reporters last month, blaming Biden’s infrastructure bill for the shift in inflation. "The last thing we need to do is pile on with another massive, reckless tax and spending spree."

    Republicans on Twitter have started using the hashtag, #ThanksgivingTax, in an attempt to associate higher priced Thanksgiving meals with Biden and other Democrats. The holiday meal will cost an extra 14% this year, according to the farm lobby.

    “Due to President Biden’s failed economic policies, the cost of Thanksgiving dinner will be at an all time high. American families deserve better. #ThanksgivingTax,” wrote Rep. Dan Meuser (R-Penn.)

    But in reality, most economists (on the left and right) agree that Biden’s policies have little to do with rising inflation. Analysts at Moody's Analytics and Fitch Ratings say that the bill has no impact on the increasing prices because the money from it won't begin to flow into the economy until 2022, and due to its decade-long rollout and revenue-raising offsets.

    The White House blames supply chain snags caused by COVID-19 and the consolidation of businesses during the pandemic for higher prices. Recently, the Biden administration has signaled that they might go on the offense and blame large companies for passing increased prices on to consumers even as their profits rise.

    Biden indicated as much this month when he urged the Federal Trade Commission to further investigate any anti-competitiveness in the oil and gas industry, which he said was causing higher gasoline prices.

    “The price of gasoline on the wholesale market has fallen by about 10% over the last few weeks,” said Biden on Tuesday afternoon at a press conference meant to address increasing prices while promoting the White House’s economic efforts. “But the price at the pump hasn’t budged a penny. In other words, gas supply companies are paying less and making a lot more and they do not seem to be passing that on to consumers at the pump.”

    Still, when it comes to actually addressing the realities of inflation, there’s little Biden can actually do. The president announced yesterday that he would nominate Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to helm the central bank for another term.

    Powell, who is in charge of the politically independent agency, could raise short-term interest rates to offset higher prices. During the COVID pandemic, and the Trump era, he lowered rates and bought assets to push more money into the sinking economy. Economists argue those actions could have led to inflation, but Powell claims that the plan is only temporary and the need to keep the economy afloat outweighs any fear of slight inflation.

    Biden has used his executive power to ease supply chain problems at ports and he's met with the CEOs of large retailers asking them to stock their shelves quickly to meet demand. He also announced today that he would release oil from the nation's Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but the impact on gas prices will likely be minimal. “While our actions will not solve the problem of high gas prices overnight,” the president said Tuesday, “it will make a difference over time.”

    He could lift tariffs created by President Trump on Chinese imports, but the implications on global relations would outweigh any fix to inflation, geopolitical experts say.

    In any case, the president doesn’t control the Federal Reserve and can’t force Powell’s hand. As far as options go for inflation, a firm finger shaking at large corporations is about all he can do while reminding Americans of his other economic successes.

    “Even accounting for inflation, our economy is bigger and Americans have more money in their pocket than they did before the pandemic. America is the only major economy in the world that can say that,” Biden said.

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